By Alexander Pracht
Amid Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s long-winded address to the nation on cultural values and the need for a new constitution, little attention was paid to another significant development — the launch of efforts to draft a new national security strategy. Pashinyan established a commission for this purpose yesterday to replace the current strategy adopted in July 2020.
The primary goal of the current one has been to “establish guidelines for ensuring the security and progressive development of Armenia and its citizens, based on the vision of an independent, sovereign, and powerful country serving as homeland for all Armenians globally.”
The commission will consist of more than 20 members, primarily deputy ministers and deputy heads of security agencies, and will be led by National Security Council Chairman Armen Grigoryan.
As Grigoryan noted at a press briefing today: “significant changes have taken place around Armenia” since July 2020, and so after waiting some time, it has been decided a new national security strategy should be developed in light of that.
While it remains unclear what specific changes the new strategy will entail, it is likely that, among other revisions, it will exclude the provision supporting the now-defunct Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and its defense of the territory it once controlled. This would mark a significant departure from the 2020 strategy, which had positioned Armenia as the protector of Karabakh Armenians’ security, rights, and self-determination. The previous strategy had also criticized Turkey’s involvement, arguing that its military and political backing of Azerbaijan escalated regional tensions and hindered peaceful conflict resolution.
Last month, Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) stated in its public report that while the likelihood of a large-scale Azerbaijani military attack on Armenia in the near future is low, smaller skirmishes along the border are expected to continue, maintaining tensions between the two nations.
The FIS also highlighted ongoing border delimitation as a potential risk-reducer, although it expressed doubts about Azerbaijan’s commitment to genuine peace. The report further pointed to Azerbaijan’s aggressive rhetoric, interference in Armenia’s internal affairs, and attempts to impose unilateral demands while predicting an increase in Azerbaijan’s military capabilities. Additionally, the report mentioned food and energy security as persisting challenges for Armenia.
In a parallel development yesterday, Pashinyan addressed the nation and called for a referendum to be held in the country to adopt a new constitution. He argued that adopting a new constitution is vital for the country’s future, as the current one was enacted without widespread public approval and later amended in 2005 and 2015 through referendums that, he claimed, were undemocratic and widely seen as illegitimate in society.
Calls for a new Armenian constitution have faced criticism, as they are widely seen as a response to Azerbaijani demands. Since taking full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, Baku has repeatedly pushed for constitutional changes in Armenia that would eliminate any references to the country’s Declaration of Independence adopted in 1990. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and other high-ranking officials have expressed concerns over the declaration, which states that the country must unite with Karabakh.
While Armenia’s constitution itself makes no mention of Karabakh, and the Constitutional Court ruled last year that the declaration holds no constitutional power unless its provisions are explicitly included in the constitution, Azerbaijan has not dropped its demands. Baku continues to cite constitutional amendments as a key precondition for signing a normalization deal, arguing that while Pashinyan’s government may have no intention of reclaiming Nagorno-Karabakh, future administrations might take a different stance.
Pashinyan and members of the ruling Civil Contract party, however, argue that they have consistently called for a new Constitution ever since coming to power in 2018, but the 2020 war, the COVID lockdown, and the 2023 Karabakh events have prevented the possibility of holding a proper referendum campaign.
At a press briefing today, Justice Minister Srbuhi Galyan, who is widely regarded as the key figure behind the constitutional reform project, said that the government has yet to decide whether the new constitution will retain the reference to the Declaration of Independence.
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