Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov announced today to local media that Armenia has accepted Azerbaijan’s proposals regarding the peace treaty, and the text has been fully agreed upon. Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has confirmed this, stating:
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia has informed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan through diplomatic channels that Armenia accepts Azerbaijan’s proposals regarding the two unresolved articles of the draft ‘Agreement on Peace and the Establishment of Interstate Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan.’ Armenia has proposed issuing a joint statement confirming that the text of the Peace Agreement has been agreed upon and that negotiations on its finalization have concluded. However, instead of issuing a joint statement, Baku has chosen to make a unilateral declaration.”
The final two unresolved clauses in the peace treaty concerned the mutual withdrawal of legal claims from international courts and the exclusion of third-party presence on the mutual border. The latter specifically refers to the European Union’s Monitoring Mission (EUMA) in Armenia. While it had long been evident that Yerevan was willing to accept Azerbaijan’s demand on withdrawing legal claims—particularly following the resignation of Armenia’s representative on international legal matters, Yeghishe Kirakosyan—the agreement regarding EUMA remains unclear. The mission’s mandate was recently extended for two more years. While Armenia had proposed restricting its access by preventing patrols in already delimited parts of the border, Azerbaijan dismissed this suggestion. One possible compromise could involve Armenia agreeing not to seek a further extension after the current two-year mandate expires. Official confirmation on this matter is still awaited.
Despite reaching an agreement on the text of the peace treaty, the actual signing of the document remains uncertain. Bayramov stated that Baku now expects Yerevan to change its constitution and agree to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group before the treaty can be signed. Azerbaijan’s presidential foreign policy aide, Hikmet Hajiyev, reiterated this demand earlier today, reinforcing Baku’s longstanding position that constitutional changes in Armenia are a prerequisite for finalizing the peace agreement.
These two preconditions are not part of the peace treaty text itself but are nonetheless key Azerbaijani demands. The Armenian government appears willing to meet both, yet significant challenges remain. While dissolving the Minsk Group is a relatively straightforward process, changing the Armenian constitution is far more complex. The preamble of Armenia’s constitution references the country’s declaration of independence, which includes a clause on the unification act of Soviet Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. This preamble cannot be amended, meaning that the only way to remove this reference is by adopting an entirely new constitution.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government have been preparing the public for such a move, presenting it as part of a broader redefinition of Armenia’s national identity rather than a direct concession to Azerbaijan. Pashinyan has introduced the concept of “Real Armenia” to justify this change. However, even if the ruling party is fully committed to adopting a new constitution, the process will be challenging.
Firstly, it will take time. Armenia’s newly appointed Justice Minister Srbuhi Galyan recently stated that the government aims to draft a new constitution by the 2026 parliamentary elections.
Secondly, the move is likely to be highly unpopular and perceived as being imposed by Azerbaijan. For a constitutional referendum to be valid, at least 25% of the electorate and a minimum of 600,000 people must participate. While the government could increase voter turnout by holding the referendum alongside parliamentary elections, this could negatively impact their electoral success. Convincing the public to support a constitutional change dictated by Baku will be difficult, but Pashinyan’s administration will likely frame it as the necessary price for peace—”a difficult but essential decision for Armenian society.”
In summary, while the peace treaty text has been agreed upon, the signing of the document remains a distant prospect. Furthermore, even if signed, the treaty does not address some of the most pressing disputes, such as disagreements over the modalities of transportation routes and economic unblocking in the South Caucasus.
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