Op-ed by Vartan Oskanian, Armenia’s former foreign minister (1998-2008)
The moment Nikol Pashinyan steps down—or is removed from office—Armenia’s strategic and diplomatic position will markedly improve, and the threat of renewed war will diminish. Why? Because Pashinyan is widely seen as a failure. His political capital is exhausted, his credibility undermined, and his leadership has come to symbolize weakness to adversaries and unreliability to allies. Under his watch, Armenia has lost territory, lives, and national pride. A new government, guided by national interests and a clear sense of purpose, can begin to turn the page and reclaim Armenia’s rightful place in the region.
The new government must act swiftly on two fronts. First, it must pause ongoing negotiations with Azerbaijan. It doesn’t have to challenge any agenda items currently on the table, regardless of how dangerous or unacceptable they may be. Instead, on the basis of the principle of reciprocity, Armenia must calmly and firmly insist on the inclusion of its own priorities—chief among them: the release of Armenian hostages, the right of return for the displaced people of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces from sovereign Armenian territory. Let the talks resume. This approach should be principled, measured, and unyielding—resolute, but not provocative.
Second, Armenia must bring clarity to its geopolitical orientation in light of shifting realities on the ground and changes in global power dynamics. Armenia must move beyond reactive diplomacy. Its government must speak with clarity and confidence, stop being paralyzed by fear of war, and refuse to capitulate to externally imposed solutions. National interest must be defined by Armenia—not outsourced to foreign powers with competing agendas.
While the West pursues its own strategic goals in the region—diminishing Russian influence, isolating Iran, securing Azeri energy flows—Armenia must not become a pawn in a larger game. Rather, it should engage with all actors on the basis of mutual interest and respect.
Even during less favorable periods in the 2000s, the policy of complementarity served Armenia well. The current international environment presents an opportune moment to revive this approach: maintaining one strategic anchor while engaging other global powers in a complementary fashion, in order to maximize both security and economic benefits.
Indeed, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the forced displacement of its entire Armenian population in 2023 was not only a national tragedy—it was a wake-up call. This moment demands a bold and unapologetic redefinition of Armenian foreign policy, grounded not in fear or fatalism, but in enduring national interests: sovereignty, territorial integrity, the right of return, and the preservation of identity.
Pursuing national interests does not mean seeking conflict; it means advancing strategic goals with clarity, discipline, and consistency. Among the most urgent priorities is restoring the right of return for the displaced Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. More than 120,000 people were expelled in what can only be described as an act of ethnic cleansing. This is not a closed chapter; it is a continuing political, diplomatic, legal, and moral crisis. Armenia must lead the international campaign for their return, building on existing support—from the International Court of Justice’s November 2023 ruling, to resolutions in the European and Swiss parliaments, to statements by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.
Simultaneously, Armenia must take a principled and realistic approach to relations with Turkey. This does not mean sacrificing historical truth. The 1915 genocide is a documented fact, recognized by scholars and governments alike. But normalization cannot be indefinitely paralyzed by history. A post-Pashinyan Armenia must adopt a forward-looking posture: honest, non-revisionist, and free from hate or revenge.
Armenia stands at a crossroads. Under Pashinyan, the path has been one of retreat, resignation, and increasing vulnerability. But this trajectory is not inevitable. With new leadership, restored national purpose, and a confident foreign policy, Armenia can rise again—defending the rights of its people, preserving its identity, and asserting its rightful role in the region and the world.
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