By Zhanna Avagyan
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will travel to Moscow to take part in the May 9 Victory Day celebrations, underscoring what he described as Armenia’s “balanced and balancing” foreign policy—even as relations with Russia remain tense. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has declined the same invitation, highlighting the deepening rift between Baku and Moscow.
Speaking in parliament on Wednesday, Pashinyan defended his upcoming Moscow visit against criticism that it could undermine Armenia’s growing ties with the West. “This policy does not entail building relationships in one direction at the expense of others,” he said, adding that commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany remains historically and diplomatically significant. While no formal meetings are planned in Moscow, Pashinyan noted that bilateral interactions are expected on the sidelines of the parade.
Armenia’s relationship with Russia has frayed since the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh and deteriorated further after Azerbaijan seized full control of the region in 2023, carrying out the ethnic cleansing of its entire Armenian population. Yerevan has accused Moscow of abandoning its security commitments, suspended participation in the Russia-led military bloc of CSTO, and ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court—a move that sparked strong Russian objections. Moscow is particularly alarmed because the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin, meaning Armenia would be legally obligated to detain him if he visits, at least in theory.
Despite these tensions, Pashinyan stressed that cooperation with Russia remains part of Armenia’s foreign policy agenda.
By contrast, Baku’s relations with Moscow have entered a new phase of stagnation and hostility. A series of events in late 2024 and early 2025—including demands from Azerbaijan for apologies and accountability over the December crash of Azerbaijani airplane, which went down near Aktau, Kazakhstan en route from Baku to Grozny under disputed circumstances; cyberattacks on Azerbaijani media; the closure of the Russian cultural center in Baku; and a series of mutual accusations—signaled a serious diplomatic chill. Investigations later suggested the aircraft may have been accidentally struck by a Russian air defense missile, further inflaming tensions between the two countries.
Though March appeared to bring a thaw—with the inauguration of a monument to Heydar Aliyev in Moscow, cultural exchanges, and renewed diplomatic contacts—tensions resurfaced in May. Azerbaijani lawmakers publicly accused Russia-linked groups of orchestrating cyberattacks, and Moscow responded by banning an Azerbaijani MP from entering the country. Even a personal invitation from Russian Patriarch Kirill, delivered in Baku, failed to sway Aliyev.
Despite earlier announcements that the Azerbaijani president would join other leaders in Moscow for the Victory Day commemorations, the Kremlin later cited “scheduling conflicts” due to domestic events related to Heydar Aliyev’s legacy. However, observers see Aliyev’s absence as a clear political signal.
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