By Arshaluys Mghdesyan
Armenia’s gold trade has seen a dramatic collapse in early 2025, following a brief surge driven by geopolitical and policy shifts in the region during 2023-2024. In an interview with CivilNet, economist Haykaz Fanyan explained that the boom in gold exports during 2023 and early 2024 was largely the result of a temporary loophole created by Russian export policies.
In September 2023, Russia imposed a 10% export duty on gold, aiming to boost its federal revenues amid rising global gold prices and the financial pressures of war. The duty, however, excluded exports within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which includes Armenia. Armenian traders quickly capitalized on this exemption by importing large volumes of Russian gold, conducting minimal processing, and re-exporting it to third countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong. This practice led to an unprecedented rise in Armenia’s foreign trade turnover, with gold re-exports alone reaching several billion dollars.
However, this “gold rush” came to a swift end. In April 2024, Russia reversed its policy and lifted the export duty, having realized that the intended revenue gains were being undermined. As Fanyan explained, instead of enriching Russia’s state budget, the profits were diverted through EAEU countries like Armenia, creating what he called “a systemic loophole.” With the removal of the duty, Armenia’s advantage disappeared almost overnight.
The impact was immediate and sharp. In the first quarter of 2025, Armenia’s exports fell by 49%, and gold exports dropped by over 80% compared to the previous year. The collapse has also contributed to a broader slowdown in Armenia’s processing industry, which had grown heavily dependent on the re-export of gold and precious stones.
Despite the downturn, Armenia’s tax revenues have continued to grow — a paradox that Fanyan attributes to improved tax administration, the lagging effect of the earlier trade boom, as well as rising revenues from the construction sector. In recent years, Armenia has experienced a construction boom. The commissioning of numerous high-rise residential buildings has led to increased budget revenues through property transactions, the operation of new facilities, and related economic activities.
As Armenia confronts the fallout from the collapse of its gold trade, Fanyan argues that the government should refocus on long-term economic planning, emphasizing sectors that can generate stable growth and are less vulnerable to external shocks. This gold trade phenomenon, he said, is a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on the circumstantial trade advantages without building deeper economic resilience.
Watch CivilNet’s interview with economist Haykaz Fanyan
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