David Akopyan and Eric Hacopian
The lives of Artsakh Armenians were shattered in 2023 when Artsakh authorities and civilians had no choice but to flee their homeland after a swift military offensive by Azerbaijan. A region that had been home to a vibrant Armenian population for over two millennia was effectively emptied. By the end of September 2023, the exodus was complete, with nearly all 120,000 Artsakh Armenians relocating to Armenia.
A year later, it’s time to assess the progress made in integrating the displaced Artsakh population into Armenia.The initial humanitarian response, while crucial, could only provide temporary relief for those left traumatized and without basic necessities. As the exodus unfolded, the Armenian government and international community launched emergency efforts to deliver humanitarian aid and explore pathways for integration and a fulfilling life in Armenia.
Now, a year later, it’s imperative to evaluate the integration process, identify challenges, and chart a course forward. While discussions of returning to Artsakh persist, such a scenario is not feasible in the foreseeable future. This analysis will examine both successes and shortcomings and propose strategies, policies, and programs to expedite the integration process. Beyond addressing humanitarian and economic needs, the proposed approaches aim to safeguard the refugee population from potential exploitation by domestic adversaries and hostile foreign powers.
Immediate Response
In the immediate aftermath of the exodus from Artsakh, Armenia faced a rapid influx of refugees, with estimates suggesting over 100,000 in addition to those dozens of thousands that fled during the earlier phases. This large scale displacement was an immense strain on the country’s already burdened economy and infrastructure. Emergency shelters were set up, and the government, NGOs, numerous volunteers as well as international organizations, including the United Nations and the International Red Cross, worked tirelessly to provide humanitarian aid. The Armenian diaspora also mobilized to raise funds and support displaced families.
Despite these efforts, many refugees remained in temporary accommodations, or with relatives and friends, facing uncertain prospects for long-term housing, employment and overall, for their future.
A Year in Review
Of the 120,000 people who arrived in Armenia, including those who relocated during the blockade, it is estimated that almost 15,000 have since left Armenia, mostly heading to Russia where they are hosted by relatives. Some may return to Armenia in the future, while others are likely to permanently settle in Russia.
Notably, only a little over 4,000 individuals have applied for Armenian citizenship. Even fewer have been granted citizenship, a surprisingly small figure given the overall number of displaced people. There are several reasons for this: some, out of pride, feel that they already had Armenian passports and citizenship and do not see the need to reapply. Others are concerned that by accepting Armenian citizenship, they may lose their rights to their homeland, homes, and the right to return to Artsakh. Others are concerned about losing their right to social assistance.
Of the approximately 15,000 military and law enforcement personnel that relocated, estimates suggest only 1,000 are currently engaged in Armenian forces. Many of these individuals are highly trained, making them a valuable, yet untapped, resource for Armenia’s armed forces, which urgently need more personnel and top-tier recruits. The lack of a clear integration strategy for the remaining Artsakh military and law enforcement personnel exacerbates Armenia’s existing manpower shortages and need for skilled forces. To address this, a comprehensive plan is urgently needed, focusing on integration strategies, recruitment incentives, and career pathways, to harness the expertise of these former Artsakh personnel and bolster Armenia’s defense capabilities
As for teachers and students from Artsakh, Armenia has implemented various programs and initiatives to facilitate their integration into the educational system. Programs have successfully integrated students into Armenian schools and universities. For teachers, efforts have been made to integrate them into the Armenian education system; however a more comprehensive plan is needed to offer professional development, certification, and support for adapting to new curricula.
The integration of civil servants from Artsakh poses a distinct set of challenges. The situation for civil servants from Artsakh is particularly difficult due to the disproportionately high number of government employees who have relocated to Armenia. Reintegrating such a large group into Armenia’s public sector is a daunting task. Many of these individuals also face the psychological barrier of transitioning from their former roles, shaped by the unique context of Artsakh’s de facto autonomy to accepting new political and professional realities in Armenia.
Objective Realities
Many displaced people from Artsakh, as well as their supporters, maintain the belief that the Armenian government’s attitude toward them is, at best, indifferent and, at worst, hostile.
The full political consequences of the ethnic cleansing are still emerging as the initial shock of displacement gives way to a deeper understanding of the disaster’s long-term implications. As displaced individuals come to terms with the reality that returning to Artsakh in the immediate future is highly unlikely, the discontent may solidify into a broader political movement. This dissatisfaction could significantly shape Armenia’s political landscape, particularly as the images of the 2023 events in September and October will color Armenian politics for the next generation; they will be seen as the lessons that were a result of the failures of the past 30 years.
In the long run, the political future in Armenia will likely hinge on which party or leader can convincingly promise that such a disaster will never be repeated. Future leaders will need to address both the strategic failures that led to the ethnic cleansing and the enduring challenges of national security, refugee integration, and regional stability. The ability to prevent another catastrophe like the one witnessed in 2023 will be a defining issue for the next generation of Armenian politics.
Some in the current government might downplay the political importance of the displaced Artsakh population due to their smaller numbers, and the fact that without registration and new passport they cannot vote. However, this is a major miscalculation. Far more Armenians trace their roots to Artsakh than the 120,000 who were displaced, and many more see the Artsakh issue as central to their national identity. The legacy of Artsakh is deeply embedded in Armenia’s political and cultural consciousness, making it a significant force that extends well beyond its numbers.
The Armenian government’s reluctance to discuss Artsakh stems from concerns that doing so could provide opportunities for hostile foreign countries to sow discord between Armenians and Artsakh Armenians. However, with enough finesse, the government can establish a strong program of integration and advocate for their rights internationally while not jeopardizing the “peace process”.
Domestic Action
To successfully integrate the displaced Artsakh population into Armenia, the Armenian government must implement several initiatives. Key challenges include housing, employment and healthcare. Housing shortages, particularly in urban centers like Yerevan, pose a significant obstacle. While the government is exploring new housing options, progress will take time. Employment presents another major hurdle, especially in rural areas. Targeted government programs, with international support, are essential for creating vocational training opportunities and facilitating labor market integration. To address these challenges effectively, the Armenian government should establish a dedicated office to oversee the integration process. This office should be well-equipped and led by a respected figure. The specific strategies and initiatives required for successful integration are detailed in the following sections.
Economic Opportunities: High-Tech, Tourism/Hospitality, and Agriculture
With recent progress in key economic sectors in Armenia, displaced Artsakh refugees can find meaningful employment and resettlement opportunities in growth sectors of high-tech, tourism, hospitality, and agriculture. Artsakh Armenians must be viewed not as a socially dependent group, but as a valuable and economically productive workforce. The only missing elements are professional orientation and startup support to integrate them into Armenia’s growing economy.
- 1. High-Tech Sector
Armenia’s high-tech sector has been expanding rapidly. Artsakh refugees, especially younger and educated individuals, can benefit from this growth by pursuing jobs in the tech industry, after dedicated training and reskilling. Programs such as those offered by the TUMO Centre for Creative Technologies and many others may enable them to enter the workforce in tech or related fields. With the increasing availability of remote work opportunities, even refugees in rural areas can participate in this sector.
- 2.Tourism and Hospitality Sector
Armenia’s focus on ecotourism and cultural tourism offer both employment and entrepenurial opportunities for refugees in rural areas. Refugee-settled regions can be transformed into new tourist destinations with the development of guesthouses, eco-lodges, and adventure parks that attract domestic and international visitors.
3. Agriculture and Agribusess
Many Artsakh refugees have a background in farming, making agriculture a natural fit. Armenia’s agricultural sector, particularly in fruit cultivation, dairy farming, and wine production, offers numerous employment opportunities. Government programs that provide land access, subsidies, and agricultural equipment could help displaced families establish farming operations.
Social and Cultural Integration
In terms of social and cultural integration, the poplulation from Artsakh face both advantages and challenges. While they share the same ethnic and linguistic background as the population of Armenia, many have spent decades living in a different political and economic context. Some refugees feel a deep sense of loss, having left behind their homes, communities, and cultural heritage. This emotional trauma is exacerbated by the uncertainty of their future in Armenia. The Armenian government and NGOs are offering psychological support services, but the scale of the trauma experienced by the displaced population suggests that more extensive mental health support is required over an extended period of time. Although efforts to integrate into local communities have begun, tensions occasionally arise as local Armenians are concerned about the competition for limited resources like jobs and housing. It is important while coming up with tailored programs for refugees not to forget the needs of the host communities.
International Actions: Call for International Donor Conference on Intergration
International support for the integration of the Artsakh population in Armenia is crucial, encompassing both short-term humanitarian needs and long-term development assistance with employment, housing, and more. Additionally, international action is essential to ensure the right of the people of Artsakh to return, reclaim their property, and secure the release of POWs.
The Armenian government must call for an international donor conference given the substantial costs involved. Donor conference should be called in order to internationalize the focus of integrating Artsakh refugees into Armenia. While valuable discussions with the USAID, WB, EU, and UN continue, the pressing need for scaled development aid and international expertise for refugee integration remains. Donor conferences could galvanize fundraising efforts and increase foreign community engagement because the current sporadic funding from individual donor countries fail to address the scale and complexity of the refugee crisis.
Intenrational Action: Triangulation
With regard to the people of Artsakh right of return, any international action should be a program focused on triangulation. The three parties should be the international community, with the widest understanding of that concept, the population of Artsakh, and the Armenian government as the third party that is not directly involved in any of the back and forth. It is key to internationalize all matters dealing with the rights of this population. This is not only practically important but also of great political relevance. Figuratively speaking, the Armenian government can waive a bloodied shirt at the international community (mostly the West) to urge them to act as the price for their criminal inaction last year. Since none of them can publicly support the ethnic cleansing of last year, they have no option but to respond positively on this matter and, more importantly, on matters involving Armenia’s current security challenges. There is also no precedent in recent history for a nation not demanding help in such a situation; Armenia should not want to be the exception to that rule. Meantime it will demonstrate to Artsakh compatriots, that in addition to the integration effort there is also a nationwide effort to help them to regain dignity showing a unified front.
The Armenian government must maintain the momentum by engaging friendly non-state third parties to fund and establish an international committee entirely unaffiliated with Armenia. This would be comprised of big or mid-level names from the EU, US, and Western political, diplomatic (retired), and human rights circles that will do the following:
- Declare that last year’s ethnic cleansing was an egregious breach of international law, akin to the Srebrenica genocide, and that it must not go unpunished. Demand immediate steps to reverse this humanitarian disaster.
- Put responsibility for this effort on the regime in Baku while criticizing the world community for its lack of response.
- Set conditions for the return of the population of Artsakh to their ancestral lands.
- Demands sanctions against the Baku regime to force this outcome.
- Demand international support for the ICC to prosecute the principles of the regime in Baku for ethnic cleansing.
- Be a strong advocate for the unconditional release of all illegally held prisoners.
In the short run, the government of Armenia must be removed from the dispute as the initatior. But behind the scenes, it must make vocal demands for the release of illegally detained prisoners in Baku dispelling the perception of the government’s inaction and demonstrate solidarity with the Artsakh population.
The Armenian government must be aggressive as the third party raising the cost for the regime in Baku for their intransigence and reluctance to sign a peace treaty.
A Change of Tone and Reframing of the Narrative
A shift in rhetoric is crucial. Key Armenian government figures should publicly emphasize that while the displacement of the Artsakh population was tragic, the population is a demographic gift and not a burden. By consistently conveying a positive attitude toward the refugee population, the government can mitigate hostility from the population of Artsakh toward this government. There are small but strategic steps that can significantly impact the integration process.
Integration should be framed as a mean to revitalize depopulating rural communities. By positioning it as a mutually beneficial strategy that strengthens both local communities and the cohesion of Artsakh communities nationwide, the government can promote a more favorable perception of the integration efforts.
The Way Forward
The successful integration of the Artsakh population into Armenia necessitates a comprehensive, long-term approach. Beyond immediate humanitarian aid, solutions must encompass housing projects, economic development initiatives, robust social services, and specialized psychological support for trauma and PTSD.
To achieve this, the Armenian government should convene an international donor conference to secure the necessary financial and technical assistance. Additionally, the government must develop a cohesive national strategy for refugee integration, focusing not only on material needs but also on ensuring that displaced Armenians from Artsakh can rebuild their lives with dignity and security. Their full integration into Armenian society is vital for the stability and future prosperity of both the displaced population and the country.
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