By Lia Avagyan
The ruling Georgian Dream party secured a decisive victory in Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26, winning 54% of the votes and claiming 89 seats in the 150-member parliament. While four opposition parties managed to cross the electoral threshold with approximately 10% of votes each, they have refused to accept their mandates, citing election fraud. President Salome Zurabishvili has also publicly challenged the election’s legitimacy.
Under Georgian Dream’s leadership in recent years, Georgia has gradually shifted away from its pro-European stance, adopting a more pragmatic approach in its relations with Russia and China. This pivotal shift raises questions about its implications for Armenia.
Regional Implications
Benyamin Poghosyan, a senior expert at the APRI Armenia think tank, warns that if Georgia’s current authorities maintain their positions and continue their gradual departure from the West, Armenia’s Western-oriented diversification strategy could face increased challenges.
“We find ourselves in a region – the South Caucasus and neighboring states – where essentially no one is inclined toward deeper relations with the West,” Poghosyan explains. “Georgia is shifting away, Azerbaijan was never inclined, Iran and Russia have extremely tense relations with the West, while Turkey maintains a balanced policy.”
Under these circumstances, the expert suggests that Armenia might find it increasingly difficult to maintain its Western-oriented foreign policy. “I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Armenian government introducing changes to its foreign policy,” he notes.
Economic Impact
While Poghosyan doesn’t anticipate immediate significant economic changes, he cautions that prolonged political instability in Georgia, potentially triggered by opposition protests, could adversely affect Armenia’s economy. “After all, at least 70% of Armenia’s external trade passes through Georgian territory,” he emphasizes.
Shifting Dynamics with Russia
Despite the absence of diplomatic relations since the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Georgia’s current government has deepened cooperation with Russia while taking several anti-Western measures. These include the adoption of the Foreign Agents Law, which drew criticism from the West and local civil society while receiving praise from Russia. Moscow has also lifted visa requirements for Georgian citizens.
The Georgian Dream’s victory was welcomed by Margarita Simonyan, head of the ‘Russia Today’ state agency and a prominent Russian propagandist. Poghosyan believes that Russian-Georgian economic cooperation will continue, particularly in light of sanctions against Russia, creating re-export opportunities for Georgia.
Future Concerns
Olesya Vardanyan, a South Caucasus expert, told CivilNet that a more pro-Russian Georgia could pose challenges for Armenia. She warns that improved Georgian-Russian relations, characterized by increased Russian capital in certain companies and greater control over transportation routes and corridors, would significantly impact Armenia.
“If Georgia moves toward Russia and becomes a ‘Caucasian Belarus,’ it would represent a fundamental change for the region,” Vardanyan concludes. “This would have serious consequences for Armenia.”
“Armenia will have, of course, a tough game if there is a further negative development in Georgia,” says Sergey Lagodinsky, a member of the European Parliament.
At the same time, he said, it opens unique chances because “Armenia becomes a reliable bridge between the EU and Caucasus Republics and the whole region eastwards. So it also has its merits. This is not the solution I would prefer, but we have to work with the results that we have and we’ll have to do it together.”
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