Azerbaijan lacks any motivation to sign a peace treaty with Armenia and is instead focused on gaining influence over Armenia’s southern regions over the next three to five years, according to Benyamin Poghosyan, a senior analyst at the APRI Armenia research center.
In a year-end interview with CivilNet, Poghosyan argued that Azerbaijan has effectively abandoned genuine negotiations since September 2023. “The negotiation process has become merely performative,” he said. “Before September 2023, while there was still an Armenian population in Artsakh, Azerbaijan had the motivation to legally foreclose any possibility of self-determination or autonomy for Artsakh Armenians. But now that issue no longer exists, and for the past 15 months, we’ve seen nothing but theatrical diplomacy.”
After imposing an almost nine-month blockade on Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Azerbaijan escalated its campaign against the Armenian enclave by resorting to aggression in September 2023. This offensive resulted in the complete ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population of Artsakh, forcing over 100,000 people to flee their ancestral homeland.
The analyst points to domestic political factors driving Baku’s approach, particularly the need for the ruling family to maintain its legitimacy. He explained that the Aliyev regime previously relied on two pillars of legitimacy: the promise to reclaim Karabakh and deliver economic prosperity.
“When oil and gas revenues started flowing into Azerbaijan in 2006-2007, although the wealth was concentrated among a small elite, the broader population still saw improvements in their living standards,” Poghosyan noted. “But this model is no longer sustainable. Oil and gas reserves are declining, prices are falling, and the global shift toward green energy is reducing demand. While Azerbaijan has achieved its goal in Karabakh, they can’t continue using this victory as a political tool for another 20-25 years.”
Poghosyan believes Azerbaijan’s leadership has pivoted to a new strategy: legitimizing their rule through nationalist rhetoric that positions Armenia as the primary external enemy while promoting the concept of “Western Azerbaijan.” “They’re essentially telling their population: ‘Trust our family’s leadership for another 20-30 years, and we’ll reclaim the rest of our historical homeland,'” he explained.
According to Poghosyan, Azerbaijan’s political elite and expert community increasingly view their country as a hegemon in the South Caucasus. While acknowledging that Azerbaijan hasn’t reached the status of medium-sized powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or Israel, he noted that Azerbaijani analysts are working to establish a new classification for their country – “too powerful to be considered small, but not yet strong enough to be deemed medium-sized.”
Azerbaijan is advancing two strategic narratives: the concept of “Western Azerbaijan” and the vision of a unified Turkic world. Over the past two years, Poghosyan observed, Azerbaijan has intensified its promotion of Turkic unity as a path to becoming a significant pole in an emerging multipolar world order. The proposed union of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan would create a bloc of nearly 200 million people with a combined GDP approaching $1 trillion.
“Azerbaijan’s interest in Armenia’s southern regions – Syunik and Vayots Dzor – serves both narratives,” Poghosyan explained. “These territories are portrayed as part of ‘Western Azerbaijan’ that should be returned or at least grant special rights to Azerbaijanis. They’re also seen as the key link needed to unite the Turkic world physically.”
While President Aliyev frequently warns about Armenian revanchism, Poghosyan believes this rhetoric is designed to justify potential future escalation rather than reflecting genuine concern. In Poghosyan’s assessment, Azerbaijan views its current strength as an opportunity to extract further concessions from Armenia, particularly regarding its southern regions.
“The methods could range from demanding the ‘return of Azerbaijani populations’ to pursuing territorial gains through military pressure,” Poghosyan concluded. “What’s clear is that for the next three to five years, Azerbaijan’s priority isn’t signing peace agreements – it’s establishing influence over southern Armenia through whatever means prove effective.”
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