By Alexander Pracht
The likelihood of a large-scale Azerbaijani military attack on Armenia in 2025 is considered low, Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) said in its report today, warning that Baku will, however, continue to cause smaller skirmishes in border areas to maintain tensions between the countries.
The FIS also noted that ongoing border delimitation could reduce these risks but questioned Azerbaijan’s commitment to genuine peace.
The report further elaborated on the factors contributing to tensions, such as Azerbaijan’s aggressive rhetoric, interference in Armenia’s domestic affairs, and attempts to impose unilateral demands during negotiations. It predicts that Azerbaijan will continue strengthening its military capabilities, both by troop training and arms acquisitions, while maintaining readiness for rapid operations.
This comes shortly after Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev threatened Armenia with war at a press conference earlier this month, labeling it “a fascist state.” Aliyev reiterated his demands for the so-called Zangezur corridor, a transport link connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave through Armenian territory. While Yerevan says it is ready to open borders as part of a normalization deal, Baku insists that its vehicles should be able to use the “Zangezur corridor” without undergoing border controls.
While the report did not mention the Azerbaijani-occupied areas of Armenian internationally-recognized territory, mostly captured during Baku’s September 2022 invasion, numerous Armenian senior officials have recently explained that Yerevan seeks to regain control over those areas through demarcation talks rather than by using force.
Touching upon regional security, the FIS noted that the developments in the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran, as well as between Russia and Ukraine, will create both direct and indirect challenges for Armenia. The potential for new sanctions against Tehran and the possible strikes on its nuclear facilities could be a real threat for Yerevan, both in terms of logistics, economy, and overall regional security, the report explained.
The FIS raised concerns over the credibility of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which Armenia is still formally a member, despite suspending its membership due to the bloc’s failure to intervene during Azerbaijan’s offensive in 2022. The report suggests that the CSTO’s inability to address security challenges in the South Caucasus has undermined its relevance, with Armenia’s suspension of membership likely to continue into 2025.
Economic vulnerabilities were another major focus of the report. Armenia’s reliance on external actors was identified as a potential point of political leverage, particularly with the 2026 parliamentary election approaching. The FIS warned that regional players could exploit this dependency by creating logistical challenges to destabilize the country. The imposition of secondary sanctions due to Armenia’s trade ties with Russia and Iran further complicates the situation. The report concluded that the lifting or easing of these sanctions is unlikely to happen in 2025, leaving Armenia exposed to sustained economic risks.
Energy security also remains a pressing issue, with Russian companies enjoying an almost complete monopoly, controlling most of Armenia’s energy producers and the country’s electric networks. On top of that, Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned fossil fuels giant, provides roughly 90% of Armenia’s gas supply, and owns its entire gas distribution infrastructure. The FIS emphasized that Armenia’s dependence on external energy sources leaves it vulnerable to political pressure, restricting its ability to pursue independent policies. This reliance, according to the report, could be used by regional powers to influence Armenia’s decision-making.Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service was established in 2023 with personnel coming from both the country’s National Security Service and the Defense Ministry. It reports directly to the Prime Minister. You can read the full report in English here.
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