By Arshaluys Mghdesyan
The likelihood of constructing a modular nuclear power plant in Armenia is extremely low, as such plants have not yet been built anywhere in the world, said Armenia’s former Deputy Minister for Energy Hakob Vardanyan.
Speaking at a panel discussion in Yerevan organized by CivilNet on Armenia’s energy security, Vardanyan emphasized the need for a cautious approach when selecting the technology for the country’s new nuclear energy plant, particularly regarding modular reactors. He noted that modular reactors have not been thoroughly tested, their construction involves significant economic risks, and Armenia cannot afford expensive, unproven technologies.
In September 2024, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced a strategic decision to construct a small modular nuclear power plant in the country. However, Vardanyan warned about the challenges associated with modular plants, stating that for the past six years, all modular reactor developers have been promising their technology would be ready the following year, yet none have delivered. He added that only one company, the U.S.-based NuScale, has obtained all the necessary regulatory approvals. Still, even in the U.S., the planned modular plant has not been built due to high capital costs.
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Vardanyan suggested discussions around modular reactors might be more about foreign policy positioning and engagement with Western partners rather than a feasible energy solution. He stressed the need for extreme caution in making such decisions. Discussions about constructing a new nuclear power plant in Armenia using Western technology have intensified alongside deepening Armenian-American cooperation in the nuclear sector, formalized in January when Armenia and the U.S. signed a strategic cooperation agreement in Washington, which includes collaboration in civil nuclear technology. Armenia has begun negotiations to join the U.S. “123 Agreement,” a legal framework that allows the country to import American civilian atomic technologies.
Vardanyan pointed out that Western technology is often assumed when discussing modular nuclear power plants. Of roughly 100 modular reactor programs worldwide, only about five are genuinely modular, while the rest are small-scale reactors. He also noted that Russia has developed small nuclear reactor technologies, meaning that opting for a small modular reactor does not necessarily mean choosing Western technology. The decision, he argued, must be based on all these considerations.
According to Vardanyan, Armenia should consider nuclear power plants with a capacity of up to 600 MW as a more suitable option. He believes the country needs a smaller, more flexible, and maneuverable power plant system rather than a single massive reactor. He also stressed the importance of selecting a reliable international partner to construct the plant, given that Armenia will have to maintain relations with that country for 60 to 100 years due to the long-term maintenance and fuel supply requirements of nuclear plants. While theoretically possible, changing fuel suppliers would present major logistical and technical challenges.
Another panelist, Astghine Pasoyan, director of the Energy Efficiency Foundation, emphasized that the decision to build a new nuclear power plant should not be based solely on technical capabilities but also on economic feasibility and Armenia’s energy security needs. She insisted that it should not be a political decision but one based on thorough technical and financial justification, ensuring that it does not increase electricity tariffs for Armenian consumers in the future.
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The panelists agreed that Armenia cannot sustain a 1,000-1,200 MW nuclear power plant, as the country’s economic growth rate and energy system cannot support such a large facility. A power plant of that scale would require an estimated $9 billion investment and would only be viable if Armenia could export electricity regionally. Additionally, constructing such a large plant would hinder the development of alternative energy sources, including solar power.
Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant remains the only operational nuclear facility in the South Caucasus. Commissioned in 1976, it was shut down after the 1988 earthquake, and one of its energy blocks was permanently closed. In the mid-1990s, the second reactor was reactivated with a 400 MW capacity, initially licensed to operate until 2016. After an extensive upgrade, its operational lifespan was extended until 2036, with the possibility of a further three-year extension. Currently, Metsamor generates about one-third of Armenia’s electricity.
As Armenia debates the future of its nuclear energy sector, the country faces a complex decision about whether to invest in new nuclear technologies, maintain its existing infrastructure, or expand renewable energy sources.
Read the article in Armenian: Հայաստանում մոդուլյար ատոմակայան կառուցելու հավանականությունը չափազանց փոքր է. նախկին փոխնախարար
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