By Siranush Adamyan
On January 9, the Armenian government approved and sent to the National Assembly a draft law to initiate the country’s EU membership. The draft law comes after a 2024 petition campaign on EU membership, which gathered over 52,000 signatures, exceeding the required 50,000. The discussions that have begun in Armenia have received significant attention both domestically and internationally, often with far-reaching conclusions.
What does the EU membership process entail?
The EU membership process involves several key steps, including:
– Presenting an official application to the EU Council
– Receiving European Commission’s opinion on the application
– Granting of candidate status to the applicant country by a unanimous decision of all EU member states
– Starting of negotiations involving legislative and structural reforms across multiple sectors
Armenia’s current step – the draft law – does not align with this procedure. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself has stated that the draft law does not imply Armenia’s EU membership.
“After this law is adopted, we need to discuss with the EU their vision of the roadmap and our vision, and develop a joint roadmap together,” Pashinyan said.
Previous cases show that the process from candidate status to full EU membership typically takes five to ten years, sometimes longer, depending on the country and circumstances. For example, Croatia submitted its EU membership application in 2003 but became a member in 2013. Montenegro received candidate status in 2010 but hasn’t yet become a member.
Current challenges
says”Regardless of how Armenia’s ruling power adopts EU membership policy at the legislative level or in declarations, Brussels currently has no such agenda,” says political scientist Narek Sukiasyan from Yerevan State University’s Center for Civilizational and Cultural Studies. He emphasizes that the EU currently has more controversial membership candidates to consider before it can begin discussing new applications.
Armenia has not submitted an EU membership application. Moreover, doing so would require withdrawing from the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
“The European Union won’t give a green light to any Caucasian state’s membership, as it would mean increased dependence on Turkey and Turkey’s influence over the EU,” says political analyst Hakob Badalyan. He notes that the EU faces numerous internal challenges and isn’t ready to take on serious political and economic commitments in the Caucasus.
“It’s also impossible to simultaneously be a member of both the EAEU and the EU, not just for Armenia but for any state because they are two different unified economic spaces,” Badalyan emphasizes.
Russia’s response
Moscow’s response to the draft law was predictably negative. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk compared Armenia’s EU membership aspirations to “buying a ticket for the Titanic,” warning of serious economic consequences. He claimed that leaving the EAEU would result in higher energy and food prices in Armenia and an 80% reduction in exports.
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current Security Council deputy chairman, was more sarcastic, suggesting Armenia could ask the EU for help, as “they love to help paradise candidates with money and weapons.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized the incompatibility of EAEU and EU memberships, stating that “being a member of two different organizations is, hypothetically speaking, impossible.”
EU’s cautious response
The EU’s response has been cautionary. EU Ambassador to Armenia Vassilis Maragos merely noted that they have been informed of the Armenian government’s decision and will study it. He emphasized that while it’s a country’s decision to seek EU membership, there are clear treaty provisions defining the membership process.
The ambassador also reminded that the EU and Armenia are already cooperating under the “Resilience and Growth” program, with bilateral relations developing positively. This program allocates €270 million to Armenia.
Evolution of Armenia-EU relations
Armenia-EU relations reached a turning point in 2013, when, under pressure from Moscow, Armenia abandoned the Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU, and instead joined the Russian-led Customs Union (later EAEU).
In 2014, Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova signed the Association and the Free Trade Agreements with the EU. The latter two currently have EU candidate status, while Georgia’s status has been suspended due to democratic backsliding.
Nevertheless, in 2017, Armenia and the EU signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which provides for multi-sector development cooperation. However, it lacks the free trade component due to Armenia’s membership in another economic union.
In recent years, EU engagement in Armenia has increased. After Azerbaijan’s attack on Armenia in September 2022, the EU expedited a decision and deployed observers along Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan in February 2023. Two years later, EU High Representative Kaya Kalas proposed extending the EU civilian mission in Armenia for another two years.
What to expect
The National Assembly will soon discuss the draft law, which requires a majority vote to pass. However, its adoption won’t directly lead to a referendum. It will only signal that the state is officially beginning the EU membership process. The actual membership question must be decided by a referendum.
However, real EU membership is far more complex, requiring not only serious reforms from Armenia but also political will from EU member states. Given the complex regional situation, Armenia’s geographical position, significant economic dependence on Russia, and internal challenges in the EU, the membership prospect remains theoretical. Both the internal political forces that organized the signature collection and the ruling party are expected to try to capitalize on public pro-European aspirations against the backdrop of growing disappointment with Russia.
Read the article in Armenian: Ինչ է՛ և ինչ չէ՛ Հայաստանում քննարկվող ԵՄ անդամակցության մեկնարկի մասին նախագիծը
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